Pendikspor 1–1 Ayvalikgucu: Result & Stats

Pendikspor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ayvalikgucu

10/31/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundSiltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pendikspor44%

×Draw20%

Ayvalikgucu36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PendiksporExpected goals in this matchAyvalikgucu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

2.06

Pendikspor

2.30

Ayvalikgucu

2.06

Pendikspor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.60

creates per match

2.33

1.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Pendikspor

2.60

Ayvalikgucu

2.33

allows per match

Pendikspor

1.80

Ayvalikgucu

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pendikspor+0.00on par

Ayvalikgucu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pendikspor ↓

Ayvalikgucu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Pendikspor or draw

64%

Pendikspor or Ayvalikgucu

80%

Draw or Ayvalikgucu

56%

Winning margin

Pendikspor wins by 2+

26%

Ayvalikgucu wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pendikspor 1+ goals

90%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

67%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

40%

Ayvalikgucu 1+ goals

87%

Ayvalikgucu 2+ goals

61%

Ayvalikgucu 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

55%

Ayvalikgucu (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pendikspor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Ayvalikgucu away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pendikspor attack 2.60 + Ayvalikgucu defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Ayvalikgucu attack 2.33 + Pendikspor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pendikspor scores more

44%

level

20%

Ayvalikgucu scores more

36%

Pendikspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pendikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff