Penarol vs Villa Espanola — Primera División - Apertura 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Penarol62%
Villa Espanola16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Penarol creates 133% more chances
Season form · 92 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Penarol ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Penarol at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.83 · 92 matches
Villa Espanola away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Penarol attack 1.72 + Villa Espanola defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86
Villa Espanola attack 0.78 + Penarol defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Penarol at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Club NacionalPenarol
Progreso
Fenix
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
Atenas
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
CA River Plate
El Tanque Sisley
Atletico Torque
Rampla JuniorsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Penarol host Villa Espanola on Saturday, 26 June 2021 at 21:00. The match is part of the Primera División - Apertura 2026/2027 season.
Penarol 1 – 1 Villa Espanola
Penarol and Villa Espanola drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on June 26, 2021.
Goals: Agustín Álvarez Martínez (57'), F. Silva (90+2').
The match was played at Estadio Campeón del Siglo in Montevideo.