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Penarol vs San José — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Penarol
Penarol
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
San José
San José
3/14/2019CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Campeón del Siglo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Penarol89%
×Draw8%
San José3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penarol
3.16
San José
0.40

Penarol creates 690% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

creates per match

Penarol
1.82
San José
0.25

allows per match

Penarol
0.55
San José
4.50

finishing

Penarol+0.00on par
San José+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penarol ↓

San José →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (16%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Penarol or draw
97%
Penarol or San José
92%
Draw or San José
11%

Winning margin

Penarol wins by 2+
73%
San José wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Penarol 1+ goals
96%
Penarol 2+ goals
82%
Penarol 3+ goals
59%
San José 1+ goals
33%
San José 2+ goals
6%
San José 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Penarol (draw refunded)
97%
San José (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penarol at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

San José away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penarol attack 1.82 + San José defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.16

San José attack 0.25 + Penarol defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Penarol scores more
89%
level
8%
San José scores more
3%

Penarol at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penarol vs San José

Penarol beat San José 4-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 14, 2019.

The match was played at Campeón del Siglo in Montevideo.