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Penarol vs Rampla Juniors — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Penarol
Penarol
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
2/23/2019Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 2Estadio Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Penarol61%
×Draw22%
Rampla Juniors17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penarol
1.87
Rampla Juniors
0.87

Penarol creates 115% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 27 away

creates per match

Penarol
1.67
Rampla Juniors
0.93

allows per match

Penarol
0.81
Rampla Juniors
2.07

finishing

Penarol+0.00on par
Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penarol ↓

Rampla Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Penarol or draw
83%
Penarol or Rampla Juniors
78%
Draw or Rampla Juniors
39%

Winning margin

Penarol wins by 2+
36%
Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Penarol 1+ goals
85%
Penarol 2+ goals
56%
Penarol 3+ goals
29%
Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
58%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
22%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Penarol (draw refunded)
78%
Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penarol at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.81 · 88 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penarol attack 1.67 + Rampla Juniors defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.87

Rampla Juniors attack 0.93 + Penarol defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Penarol scores more
61%
level
22%
Rampla Juniors scores more
17%

Penarol at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penarol vs Rampla Juniors

Penarol beat Rampla Juniors 5-0 in Primera División - Apertura on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo).