Penarol 1–2 Platense: Result & Stats

Penarol

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Platense

M. Arezo 58'

F. Zapiola 63' (pen)

G. Mainero 22'

4/17/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Campeón del Siglo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Penarol44%

×Draw27%

Platense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenarolExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.11

Penarol

1.41

Platense

1.11

Penarol creates 27% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

1.82

creates per match

1.67

0.55

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Penarol

1.82

Platense

1.67

allows per match

Penarol

0.55

Platense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penarol+0.00on par

Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penarol ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Penarol or draw

70%

Penarol or Platense

73%

Draw or Platense

56%

Winning margin

Penarol wins by 2+

21%

Platense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Penarol 1+ goals

76%

Penarol 2+ goals

41%

Penarol 3+ goals

17%

Platense 1+ goals

67%

Platense 2+ goals

30%

Platense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Penarol (draw refunded)

60%

Platense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penarol at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Platense away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penarol attack 1.82 + Platense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Platense attack 1.67 + Penarol defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Penarol scores more

44%

level

27%

Platense scores more

30%

Penarol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Arezo

Penarol · F

7.7

Match Events

22'

G. Mainero↳ T. Silva

26'

Franco Escobar

33'

Tomas Nasif

39'

Matías ArezoPenalty cancelled

45+3'

Franco Zapiola

46'

L. Umpierrez← Jesus Trindade

55'

58'

60'

60'

63'

F. ZapiolaPenalty

67'

G. Lencina← T. Nasif

67'

S. Dalmasso← F. Zapiola

74'

A. Hernandez← E. Darias

75'

A. Lagos← K. Retamar

81'

Eric Remedi

84'

F. Gonzalez← N. Fernandez

84'

I. Gomez← G. Mainero

84'

C. Ingenthron← P. Ferreira

90+7'

90+7'

90+8'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PenarolPlatense

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots5

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.08

1Corners0

16Fouls24

Shots

9Total Shots5

5On Target3

4Off Target2

0Blocked0

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

318Total Passes296

214Accurate Passes202

67%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.47Goals Prevented0.47

Discipline

16Fouls24

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

4Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Penarol 1–2 Platense

Platense beat Penarol 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 17, 2026.

Goals: G. Mainero (22'), M. Arezo (58'), F. Zapiola (63' pen).

Penarol controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Campeón del Siglo in Montevideo.

Penarol vs Platense — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Penarol 1–2 Platense