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Recreativo da Caála vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2012

Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
FT
0 – 0
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
6/17/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio dos Kuricutelas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Recreativo da Caála19%
×Draw39%
Petro de Luanda42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo da Caála
0.45
Petro de Luanda
0.84

Petro de Luanda creates 87% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Recreativo da Caála
0.33
Petro de Luanda
1.68

allows per match

Recreativo da Caála
0.00
Petro de Luanda
0.58

finishing

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Under
  • Under86
  • Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo da Caála ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–028%
0–123%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (28%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
72%28%1.5
37%63%2.5
14%86%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Recreativo da Caála or draw
58%
Recreativo da Caála or Petro de Luanda
61%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
81%

Winning margin

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
4%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
36%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
8%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
1%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
57%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
21%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
30%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
10%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo da Caála at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.33 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.45

Petro de Luanda attack 1.68 + Recreativo da Caála defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Recreativo da Caála scores more
19%
level
39%
Petro de Luanda scores more
42%

Petro de Luanda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Recreativo da Caála 0–0 Petro de Luanda

Recreativo da Caála and Petro de Luanda drew 0-0 in Girabola on June 17, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio dos Kuricutelas.