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Peñaranda vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Peñaranda
Peñaranda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
4/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 1Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peñaranda58%
×Draw24%
La Granja17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peñaranda
1.66
La Granja
0.78

Peñaranda creates 113% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Peñaranda
1.13
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Peñaranda
0.88
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Peñaranda+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peñaranda ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Peñaranda or draw
83%
Peñaranda or La Granja
76%
Draw or La Granja
42%

Winning margin

Peñaranda wins by 2+
32%
La Granja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Peñaranda 1+ goals
81%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
49%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
23%
La Granja 1+ goals
54%
La Granja 2+ goals
18%
La Granja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Peñaranda (draw refunded)
77%
La Granja (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peñaranda at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peñaranda attack 1.13 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.66

La Granja attack 0.68 + Peñaranda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Peñaranda scores more
58%
level
24%
La Granja scores more
17%

Peñaranda at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Peñaranda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peñaranda vs La Granja

Peñaranda beat La Granja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte in Peñaranda de Bracamonte.