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Peñaranda vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Peñaranda
Peñaranda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Manu González 80', 55'
Chego 39'
12/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peñaranda52%
×Draw27%
La Bañeza21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peñaranda
1.40
La Bañeza
0.78

Peñaranda creates 79% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Peñaranda
1.13
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Peñaranda
0.88
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Peñaranda+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peñaranda ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Peñaranda or draw
79%
Peñaranda or La Bañeza
73%
Draw or La Bañeza
48%

Winning margin

Peñaranda wins by 2+
25%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peñaranda 1+ goals
75%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
41%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
17%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
54%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
18%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Peñaranda (draw refunded)
71%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peñaranda at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peñaranda attack 1.13 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Peñaranda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peñaranda scores more
52%
level
27%
La Bañeza scores more
21%

Peñaranda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peñaranda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Lolo← Edu Sánchez
39'
Chego
46'
Chechu← Jorge Villardón
46'
Rubén Burón← Hugo Murciego
55'
Manu González
67'
Javi Sánchez← Dani De Frutos
69'
Eriz García← Pablo Martínez
69'
Aitor García← Jorge Suárez
80'
Manu González
86'
Alex← Manu González
86'
Jesús Santos← Francis
Peñaranda
La
Raúl Bayón
Bayón
Pablo González
González
Mateo
Mateo
Victor Fernandez
Fernandez
Samuel Mayo
Mayo
Hugo Murciego
▼
Murciego
Álvaro de Lera
Lera
Pablo Martínez
▼
Martínez
Jorge Prieto
Prieto
Jorge Suárez
▼
Suárez
Erik Del Río
Río
Pipo Martín
Martín
Jorge Villardón
▼
Villardón
Jesús Rubén
Rubén
Chego
⚽
Chego
Antonio Paz
Paz
Dani De Frutos
▼
Frutos
Aitor
Aitor
Mario Rodríguez
Rodríguez
Edu Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Manu González
⚽2
▼
González
Francis
▼
Francis
Peque
Manager: Peque
39'▲Lolo←▼Edu Sánchez
46'▲Chechu←▼Jorge Villardón
67'▲Javi Sánchez←▼Dani De Frutos
86'▲Alex←▼Manu González
86'▲Jesús Santos←▼Francis

Peñaranda substitutes

LoloChechuSánchezAlexSantos
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
46'▲Rubén Burón←▼Hugo Murciego
69'▲Eriz García←▼Pablo Martínez
69'▲Aitor García←▼Jorge Suárez

La Bañeza substitutes

BurónGarcíaGarcía

Peñaranda 3 – 0 La Bañeza

Peñaranda beat La Bañeza 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 19, 2020.

Goals: Chego (39'), Manu González (55', 80').

The match was played at Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte in Peñaranda de Bracamonte.