Peñaranda 0–1 Cultural Leonesa II: Result & Stats

Peñaranda

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cultural Leonesa II

3/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peñaranda37%

×Draw30%

Cultural Leonesa II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeñarandaExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.02

Peñaranda

1.10

Cultural Leonesa II

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

1.13

creates per match

1.17

0.88

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Peñaranda

1.13

Cultural Leonesa II

1.17

allows per match

Peñaranda

0.88

Cultural Leonesa II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peñaranda+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peñaranda ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Peñaranda or draw

67%

Peñaranda or Cultural Leonesa II

70%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa II

63%

Winning margin

Peñaranda wins by 2+

15%

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peñaranda 1+ goals

67%

Peñaranda 2+ goals

30%

Peñaranda 3+ goals

10%

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals

64%

Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals

27%

Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Peñaranda (draw refunded)

53%

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peñaranda at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peñaranda attack 1.13 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Peñaranda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Peñaranda scores more

37%

level

30%

Cultural Leonesa II scores more

33%

Peñaranda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Peñaranda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peñaranda vs Cultural Leonesa II

Cultural Leonesa II beat Peñaranda 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte in Peñaranda de Bracamonte.

Peñaranda vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Peñaranda vs Cultural Leonesa II