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Peñaranda vs Bembibre — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Peñaranda
Peñaranda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bembibre
Bembibre
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peñaranda48%
×Draw28%
Bembibre24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peñaranda
1.32
Bembibre
0.85

Peñaranda creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

creates per match

Peñaranda
1.13
Bembibre
0.82

allows per match

Peñaranda
0.88
Bembibre
1.51

finishing

Peñaranda+0.00on par
Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peñaranda ↓

Bembibre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Peñaranda or draw
76%
Peñaranda or Bembibre
72%
Draw or Bembibre
52%

Winning margin

Peñaranda wins by 2+
22%
Bembibre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peñaranda 1+ goals
73%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
38%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
15%
Bembibre 1+ goals
57%
Bembibre 2+ goals
21%
Bembibre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Peñaranda (draw refunded)
66%
Bembibre (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peñaranda at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peñaranda attack 1.13 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Peñaranda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peñaranda scores more
48%
level
28%
Bembibre scores more
24%

Peñaranda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peñaranda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peñaranda vs Bembibre

Peñaranda beat Bembibre 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte in Peñaranda de Bracamonte.