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Peñaranda vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Peñaranda
Peñaranda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
2/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peñaranda46%
×Draw28%
Becerril Campos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peñaranda
1.35
Becerril Campos
0.95

Peñaranda creates 42% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 97 away

creates per match

Peñaranda
1.13
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Peñaranda
0.88
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Peñaranda+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peñaranda ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Peñaranda or draw
74%
Peñaranda or Becerril Campos
72%
Draw or Becerril Campos
54%

Winning margin

Peñaranda wins by 2+
22%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peñaranda 1+ goals
74%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
39%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
15%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
61%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
25%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Peñaranda (draw refunded)
64%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peñaranda at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peñaranda attack 1.13 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Peñaranda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peñaranda scores more
46%
level
28%
Becerril Campos scores more
26%

Peñaranda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peñaranda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peñaranda vs Becerril Campos

Peñaranda and Becerril Campos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 23, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte in Peñaranda de Bracamonte.