Peñaranda 0–1 Atlético Astorga: Result & Stats

Peñaranda

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Astorga

11/14/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peñaranda33%

×Draw30%

Atlético Astorga36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeñarandaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Astorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.07

Peñaranda

1.01

Atlético Astorga

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 93 away

1.13

creates per match

1.27

0.88

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Peñaranda

1.13

Atlético Astorga

1.27

allows per match

Peñaranda

0.88

Atlético Astorga

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peñaranda+0.00on par

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peñaranda ↓

Atlético Astorga →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Peñaranda or draw

64%

Peñaranda or Atlético Astorga

70%

Draw or Atlético Astorga

67%

Winning margin

Peñaranda wins by 2+

13%

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Peñaranda 1+ goals

64%

Peñaranda 2+ goals

27%

Peñaranda 3+ goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

66%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Peñaranda (draw refunded)

48%

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peñaranda at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peñaranda attack 1.13 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + Peñaranda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Peñaranda scores more

33%

level

30%

Atlético Astorga scores more

36%

Atlético Astorga at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff