Penang 3–1 Felda United FC: Result & Stats

Penang

3 – 1

Felda United FC

11/6/2020

Malaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Bandar Raya Pulau Pinang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Penang33%

×Draw21%

Felda United FC46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenangExpected goals in this matchFelda United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.08

Penang

1.75

Felda United FC

2.08

Felda United FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.25

1.91

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Penang

1.00

Felda United FC

2.25

allows per match

Penang

1.91

Felda United FC

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penang+0.00on par

Felda United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penang ↓

Felda United FC →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Penang or draw

54%

Penang or Felda United FC

79%

Draw or Felda United FC

67%

Winning margin

Penang wins by 2+

17%

Felda United FC wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Penang 1+ goals

83%

Penang 2+ goals

52%

Penang 3+ goals

25%

Felda United FC 1+ goals

87%

Felda United FC 2+ goals

61%

Felda United FC 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Penang (draw refunded)

42%

Felda United FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Penang at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Felda United FC away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Penang attack 1.00 + Felda United FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Felda United FC attack 2.25 + Penang defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Penang scores more

33%

level

21%

Felda United FC scores more

46%

Felda United FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Felda United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff