Penafiel 1–4 Vitoria Setubal: Result & Stats

Penafiel

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Vitoria Setubal

11/25/2018

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Penafiel14%

×Draw18%

Vitoria Setubal68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenafielExpected goals in this matchVitoria Setubal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.41

Penafiel

1.00

Vitoria Setubal

2.41

Vitoria Setubal creates 141% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

2.57

2.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Penafiel

1.00

Vitoria Setubal

2.57

allows per match

Penafiel

2.25

Vitoria Setubal

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Vitoria Setubal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw

32%

Penafiel or Vitoria Setubal

82%

Draw or Vitoria Setubal

86%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+

5%

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals

63%

Penafiel 2+ goals

26%

Penafiel 3+ goals

8%

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

91%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

69%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)

17%

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.00 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.57 + Penafiel defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Penafiel scores more

14%

level

18%

Vitoria Setubal scores more

68%

Vitoria Setubal at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff