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Penafiel vs Tondela — Segunda Liga 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tondela
Tondela
12/3/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 12Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Penafiel35%
×Draw28%
Tondela37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.18
Tondela
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 51 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.29
Tondela
1.39

allows per match

Penafiel
1.05
Tondela
1.06

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
63%
Penafiel or Tondela
72%
Draw or Tondela
65%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
15%
Tondela wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
69%
Penafiel 2+ goals
33%
Penafiel 3+ goals
12%
Tondela 1+ goals
70%
Tondela 2+ goals
34%
Tondela 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
49%
Tondela (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.29 + Tondela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tondela attack 1.39 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Penafiel scores more
35%
level
28%
Tondela scores more
37%

Tondela at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penafiel vs Tondela

Tondela beat Penafiel 2-0 in Segunda Liga on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril in Penafiel.