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Penafiel vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
Preview
15:00
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
8/23/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 3Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril
Big match
44%
Penafiel
model favours
44%28%28%

Penafiel have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Penafiel44%
×Draw28%
Sporting CP B28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.31
Sporting CP B
1.00

Penafiel creates 31% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 26 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.28
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Penafiel
1.04
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
72%
Penafiel or Sporting CP B
72%
Draw or Sporting CP B
56%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
20%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
73%
Penafiel 2+ goals
38%
Penafiel 3+ goals
14%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
63%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
26%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
61%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.04 · 128 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.28 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Penafiel defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Penafiel scores more
44%
level
28%
Sporting CP B scores more
28%

Penafiel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Penafiel
Balanced
Sporting CP B
Balanced
48%PossessionBiggest gap55%
75%Pass accuracy82%
9.3Shots10.2
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PenafielSporting CP B

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Penafiel
1
Draws
0
Sporting CP B
Avg goals: 4BTTS: 100%
2–11–14–34–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Penafiel
LDLLW
B
DLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Penafiel face Sporting CP B (Segunda Liga)

Segunda Liga returns with Penafiel hosting Sporting CP B. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Penafiel host Sporting CP B at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.