Penafiel 1–1 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

Penafiel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting CP B

G. Negrao 34'

R. Nel 52'

11/8/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 11Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Penafiel44%

×Draw28%

Sporting CP B28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenafielExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

Penafiel

1.31

Sporting CP B

1.00

Penafiel creates 31% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 26 away

1.28

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Penafiel

1.28

Sporting CP B

0.96

allows per match

Penafiel

1.04

Sporting CP B

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw

72%

Penafiel or Sporting CP B

72%

Draw or Sporting CP B

56%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+

20%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals

73%

Penafiel 2+ goals

38%

Penafiel 3+ goals

14%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

63%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

26%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)

61%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.04 · 128 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.28 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Penafiel defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Penafiel scores more

44%

level

28%

Sporting CP B scores more

28%

Penafiel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

G. Negrao

Penafiel · M

7.6

Match Events

17'

Salvador Blopa

34'

G. Negrao↳ P. Vieira

39'

Francisco Ferreira

46'

R. Dias← J. Muniz

52'

R. Nel↳ J. Silva

60'

R. Alves← P. Vieira

60'

J. Sery← G. Negrao

60'

E. Felicissimo← Rayan Lucas

67'

M. Couto← R. Ribeiro

67'

P. Cardoso← J. Silva

78'

T. Alloh← Davo

78'

F. Goncalves← S. Justo

88'

Ruben Alves

88'

J. Silva← I. Kebe

88'

Pedro Sa← A. Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PenafielSporting

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots16

3Corners3

10Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots16

4On Target5

4Off Target10

2Blocked1

4Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

340Total Passes495

251Accurate Passes425

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls19

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4