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Penafiel vs Maritimo — Segunda Liga 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maritimo
Maritimo
3/29/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 27Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Penafiel34%
×Draw27%
Maritimo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.17
Maritimo
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 51 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.29
Maritimo
1.51

allows per match

Penafiel
1.05
Maritimo
1.04

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Maritimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
61%
Penafiel or Maritimo
73%
Draw or Maritimo
66%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
14%
Maritimo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
69%
Penafiel 2+ goals
33%
Penafiel 3+ goals
11%
Maritimo 1+ goals
72%
Maritimo 2+ goals
37%
Maritimo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
46%
Maritimo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

Maritimo away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.29 + Maritimo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Maritimo attack 1.51 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Penafiel scores more
34%
level
27%
Maritimo scores more
39%

Maritimo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penafiel vs Maritimo

Maritimo beat Penafiel 1-0 in Segunda Liga on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril in Penafiel.