Penafiel 0–2 GIL Vicente: Result & Stats

Penafiel

FT

0 – 2

GIL Vicente

C. Goncalves 76'

S. Lima 36' (pen)

10/19/2019

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Penafiel14%

×Draw21%

GIL Vicente65%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenafielExpected goals in this matchGIL Vicente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

2.01

Penafiel

0.81

GIL Vicente

2.01

GIL Vicente creates 148% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.77

2.25

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Penafiel

1.00

GIL Vicente

1.77

allows per match

Penafiel

2.25

GIL Vicente

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par

GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

GIL Vicente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw

35%

Penafiel or GIL Vicente

79%

Draw or GIL Vicente

86%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+

4%

GIL Vicente wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals

56%

Penafiel 2+ goals

19%

Penafiel 3+ goals

5%

GIL Vicente 1+ goals

87%

GIL Vicente 2+ goals

59%

GIL Vicente 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)

18%

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.00 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + Penafiel defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Penafiel scores more

14%

level

21%

GIL Vicente scores more

65%

GIL Vicente at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

16'

21'

35'

36'

S. LimaPenalty

38'

R. Tavares← R. Tavares

54'

Y. Baraye

72'

S. Lino← S. Lino

72'

L. Cordeiro← L. Cordeiro

76'

C. Goncalves

78'

Z. Naidji← Z. Naidji

84'

M. Machado← M. Machado

87'

Alfredo← Alfredo

90'

Inacio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff