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Penafiel vs Amarante — Taça de Portugal 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
AET
0 – 0
Amarante
Amarante
10/15/2016Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Penafiel24%
×Draw22%
Amarante54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.27
Amarante
1.99

Amarante creates 57% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.00
Amarante
1.73

allows per match

Penafiel
2.25
Amarante
1.55

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Amarante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
46%
Penafiel or Amarante
78%
Draw or Amarante
76%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
10%
Amarante wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
72%
Penafiel 2+ goals
36%
Penafiel 3+ goals
14%
Amarante 1+ goals
86%
Amarante 2+ goals
59%
Amarante 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
31%
Amarante (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Amarante away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.00 + Amarante defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Amarante attack 1.73 + Penafiel defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Penafiel scores more
24%
level
22%
Amarante scores more
54%

Amarante at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Penafiel 0–0 Amarante

Penafiel and Amarante drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 15, 2016.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel).