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Peña Sport vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Peña Sport
Peña Sport
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Subiza
Subiza
5/14/2023Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundCampo San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peña Sport39%
×Draw25%
Subiza36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Sport
1.47
Subiza
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Peña Sport
1.60
Subiza
2.00

allows per match

Peña Sport
0.80
Subiza
1.33

finishing

Peña Sport+0.00on par
Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Sport ↓

Subiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peña Sport or draw
64%
Peña Sport or Subiza
75%
Draw or Subiza
61%

Winning margin

Peña Sport wins by 2+
19%
Subiza wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Peña Sport 1+ goals
77%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
43%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
18%
Subiza 1+ goals
75%
Subiza 2+ goals
41%
Subiza 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Peña Sport (draw refunded)
52%
Subiza (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Sport at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Subiza away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Sport attack 1.60 + Subiza defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Subiza attack 2.00 + Peña Sport defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Peña Sport scores more
39%
level
25%
Subiza scores more
36%

Peña Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Peña Sport 3–2 Subiza

Peña Sport beat Subiza 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Campo San Francisco in Tafalla.