Peña Sport 2–2 Izarra: Result & Stats

Peña Sport

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Izarra

J. Recalde 90'

A. Muro 3'

A. Martiarena 54'

T. Larrainzar 37' (OG)

2/14/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 22Campo San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Peña Sport45%

×Draw25%

Izarra31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña SportExpected goals in this matchIzarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.28

Peña Sport

1.60

Izarra

1.28

Peña Sport creates 25% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

1.88

creates per match

1.68

0.89

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Peña Sport

1.88

Izarra

1.68

allows per match

Peña Sport

0.89

Izarra

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Sport+0.00on par

Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Sport ↓

Izarra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Peña Sport or draw

69%

Peña Sport or Izarra

75%

Draw or Izarra

55%

Winning margin

Peña Sport wins by 2+

23%

Izarra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peña Sport 1+ goals

80%

Peña Sport 2+ goals

47%

Peña Sport 3+ goals

22%

Izarra 1+ goals

72%

Izarra 2+ goals

37%

Izarra 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Peña Sport (draw refunded)

59%

Izarra (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Sport at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.89 · 92 matches

Izarra away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Sport attack 1.88 + Izarra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Izarra attack 1.68 + Peña Sport defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peña Sport scores more

45%

level

25%

Izarra scores more

31%

Peña Sport at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Muro

37'

T. LarrainzarOwn goal

54'

A. Martiarena

90'

J. Recalde

Peña

Izarra

Manager: David Ruiz

Manager: Rodrigo Hernando