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Peña Deportiva vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
CANC
22:00
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
5/2/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva56%
×Draw25%
Sporting Gijón II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.63
Sporting Gijón II
0.83

Peña Deportiva creates 96% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Sporting Gijón II
0.67

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
1.00
Sporting Gijón II
1.33

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
81%
Peña Deportiva or Sporting Gijón II
75%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
44%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
31%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
80%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
48%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
22%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
56%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
20%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
75%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
56%
level
25%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
19%

Peña Deportiva at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peña Deportiva host Sporting Gijón II

May 2, 2020: Peña Deportiva take on Sporting Gijón II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peña Deportiva host Sporting Gijón II at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.