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Peña Deportiva vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
11/10/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva54%
×Draw24%
Rayo Majadahonda22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.69
Rayo Majadahonda
0.98

Peña Deportiva creates 72% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 72 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
1.00
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
78%
Peña Deportiva or Rayo Majadahonda
76%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
46%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
29%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
82%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
50%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
24%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
62%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
26%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
71%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
54%
level
24%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
22%

Peña Deportiva at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Peña Deportiva 0–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Peña Deportiva and Rayo Majadahonda drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río in Ibiza.