Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peña Deportiva vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
12/8/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva46%
×Draw27%
Racing Ferrol28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.43
Racing Ferrol
1.05

Peña Deportiva creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
1.00
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
72%
Peña Deportiva or Racing Ferrol
73%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
54%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
22%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
76%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
42%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
17%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
65%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
28%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
62%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.43

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
46%
level
27%
Racing Ferrol scores more
28%

Peña Deportiva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Peña Deportiva 1–1 Racing Ferrol

Peña Deportiva and Racing Ferrol drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río in Ibiza.