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Peña Deportiva vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Melilla
Melilla
2/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva57%
×Draw22%
Melilla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Melilla
1.07

Peña Deportiva creates 80% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
1.00
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
79%
Peña Deportiva or Melilla
78%
Draw or Melilla
43%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
34%
Melilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
85%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
57%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
30%
Melilla 1+ goals
66%
Melilla 2+ goals
29%
Melilla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
73%
Melilla (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.93

Melilla attack 1.14 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
57%
level
22%
Melilla scores more
21%

Peña Deportiva at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Peña Deportiva 2–1 Melilla

Peña Deportiva beat Melilla 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río in Ibiza.