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Peña Deportiva vs Mallorca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Mallorca II
Mallorca II
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Peña Deportiva41%
×Draw25%
Mallorca II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.52
Mallorca II
1.38

Peña Deportiva creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 80 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
2.32
Mallorca II
1.96

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
0.79
Mallorca II
0.72

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Mallorca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
65%
Peña Deportiva or Mallorca II
75%
Draw or Mallorca II
59%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
20%
Mallorca II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
78%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
45%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
20%
Mallorca II 1+ goals
75%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
40%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
54%
Mallorca II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 2.32 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Peña Deportiva defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
41%
level
25%
Mallorca II scores more
35%

Peña Deportiva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Peña Deportiva 2–2 Mallorca II

Peña Deportiva and Mallorca II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río in Santa Eulalia del Río (Ibiza).