Peña Deportiva 3–1 Langreo: Result & Stats

Peña Deportiva

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Langreo

10/27/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva56%

×Draw24%

Langreo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña DeportivaExpected goals in this matchLangreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.89

Peña Deportiva

1.67

Langreo

0.89

Peña Deportiva creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

1.93

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Peña Deportiva

1.93

Langreo

0.78

allows per match

Peña Deportiva

1.00

Langreo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Langreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Langreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw

80%

Peña Deportiva or Langreo

76%

Draw or Langreo

44%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+

30%

Langreo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals

81%

Peña Deportiva 2+ goals

50%

Peña Deportiva 3+ goals

23%

Langreo 1+ goals

59%

Langreo 2+ goals

22%

Langreo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)

74%

Langreo (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Langreo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Langreo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Langreo attack 0.78 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more

56%

level

24%

Langreo scores more

20%

Peña Deportiva at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff