Peña Deportiva 0–0 Internacional de Madrid

Peña Deportiva

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

3/8/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva56%

×Draw24%

Internacional de Madrid20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña DeportivaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.88

Peña Deportiva

1.67

Internacional de Madrid

0.88

Peña Deportiva creates 90% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

1.93

creates per match

0.76

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Peña Deportiva

1.93

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Peña Deportiva

1.00

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw

80%

Peña Deportiva or Internacional de Madrid

76%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

44%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+

31%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals

81%

Peña Deportiva 2+ goals

50%

Peña Deportiva 3+ goals

23%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

59%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

22%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)

74%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.67

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more

56%

level

24%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

20%

Peña Deportiva at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Junior← N. Arkine

51'

C. Cruz

51'

C. Cruz

68'

Aythami Perera← Jaime Siaj

72'

Marc Fraile← F. Núñez

90+2'

Jorge Mena← Pepe Bernal

Peña

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl Casañ

72'▲Marc Fraile←▼F. Núñez

90+2'▲Jorge Mena←▼Pepe Bernal

Peña Deportiva substitutes

FraileMenaCristetoAndradaSeralGutiérrezBurón

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

46'▲Junior←▼N. Arkine

68'▲Aythami Perera←▼Jaime Siaj

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

JuniorPereraGallardoValeroGonzález