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Peña Deportiva vs Coruxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
CANC
00:00
Coruxo
Coruxo
4/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva59%
×Draw23%
Coruxo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.80
Coruxo
0.89

Peña Deportiva creates 102% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Coruxo
0.78

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
1.00
Coruxo
1.67

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Coruxo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Coruxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
82%
Peña Deportiva or Coruxo
77%
Draw or Coruxo
41%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
34%
Coruxo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
83%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
54%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
27%
Coruxo 1+ goals
59%
Coruxo 2+ goals
22%
Coruxo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
76%
Coruxo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Coruxo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Coruxo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Coruxo attack 0.78 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
59%
level
23%
Coruxo scores more
18%

Peña Deportiva at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peña Deportiva vs Coruxo — Match Preview

Peña Deportiva face Coruxo on April 19, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Peña Deportiva host Coruxo at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.