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Peña Deportiva vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
9/22/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva48%
×Draw25%
Celta de Vigo II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.61
Celta de Vigo II
1.17

Peña Deportiva creates 38% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 120 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
1.00
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
72%
Peña Deportiva or Celta de Vigo II
75%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
52%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
25%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
80%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
48%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
22%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
69%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
33%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
63%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.61

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
48%
level
25%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
28%

Peña Deportiva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peña Deportiva 3 – 4 Celta de Vigo II

Celta de Vigo II beat Peña Deportiva 4-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río in Ibiza.