Peña Balsamaiso 1–2 UD Logroñés II: Result & Stats

Peña Balsamaiso

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

UD Logroñés II

10/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso27%

×Draw25%

UD Logroñés II48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña BalsamaisoExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.56

Peña Balsamaiso

1.10

UD Logroñés II

1.56

UD Logroñés II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 77 away

1.32

creates per match

1.55

1.58

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso

1.32

UD Logroñés II

1.55

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso

1.58

UD Logroñés II

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

UD Logroñés II →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw

52%

Peña Balsamaiso or UD Logroñés II

75%

Draw or UD Logroñés II

73%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

10%

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

67%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

30%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

10%

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals

79%

UD Logroñés II 2+ goals

46%

UD Logroñés II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

36%

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

27%

level

25%

UD Logroñés II scores more

48%

UD Logroñés II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peña Balsamaiso vs UD Logroñés II

UD Logroñés II beat Peña Balsamaiso 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.

Peña Balsamaiso vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Peña Balsamaiso vs UD Logroñés II