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Peña Balsamaiso vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
La Calzada
La Calzada
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso38%
×Draw25%
La Calzada37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Balsamaiso
1.40
La Calzada
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 108 away

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.32
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.58
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw
63%
Peña Balsamaiso or La Calzada
75%
Draw or La Calzada
62%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
17%
La Calzada wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
75%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
41%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
17%
La Calzada 1+ goals
75%
La Calzada 2+ goals
40%
La Calzada 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
50%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more
38%
level
25%
La Calzada scores more
37%

Peña Balsamaiso at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Peña Balsamaiso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peña Balsamaiso vs La Calzada

La Calzada beat Peña Balsamaiso 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.