Peña Balsamaiso 1–2 Calahorra II: Result & Stats

Peña Balsamaiso

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Calahorra II

4/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso32%

×Draw25%

Calahorra II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña BalsamaisoExpected goals in this matchCalahorra II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.53

Peña Balsamaiso

1.27

Calahorra II

1.53

Calahorra II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 90 away

1.32

creates per match

1.48

1.58

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso

1.32

Calahorra II

1.48

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso

1.58

Calahorra II

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

Calahorra II →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw

57%

Peña Balsamaiso or Calahorra II

75%

Draw or Calahorra II

68%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

13%

Calahorra II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

72%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

36%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

14%

Calahorra II 1+ goals

78%

Calahorra II 2+ goals

45%

Calahorra II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

42%

Calahorra II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

32%

level

25%

Calahorra II scores more

43%

Calahorra II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Peña Balsamaiso 1–2 Calahorra II

Calahorra II beat Peña Balsamaiso 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.

Peña Balsamaiso vs Calahorra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Peña Balsamaiso 1–2 Calahorra II