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Peña Balsamaiso vs Calahorra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Calahorra
Calahorra
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 10Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso24%
×Draw23%
Calahorra53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Balsamaiso
1.19
Calahorra
1.88

Calahorra creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 18 away

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.32
Calahorra
2.17

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.58
Calahorra
1.06

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par
Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

Calahorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw
47%
Peña Balsamaiso or Calahorra
77%
Draw or Calahorra
76%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
10%
Calahorra wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
70%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
33%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
12%
Calahorra 1+ goals
85%
Calahorra 2+ goals
56%
Calahorra 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
31%
Calahorra (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

Calahorra away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + Calahorra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Calahorra attack 2.17 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more
24%
level
23%
Calahorra scores more
53%

Calahorra at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peña Balsamaiso 0 – 7 Calahorra

Calahorra beat Peña Balsamaiso 7-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.