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Peña Balsamaiso vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Arnedo
Arnedo
3/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 24Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso30%
×Draw25%
Arnedo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Balsamaiso
1.26
Arnedo
1.60

Arnedo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 95 away

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.32
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.58
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw
55%
Peña Balsamaiso or Arnedo
75%
Draw or Arnedo
70%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
13%
Arnedo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
72%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
36%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
13%
Arnedo 1+ goals
80%
Arnedo 2+ goals
47%
Arnedo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
40%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more
30%
level
25%
Arnedo scores more
45%

Arnedo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peña Balsamaiso vs Arnedo

Arnedo beat Peña Balsamaiso 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.