Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peña Balsamaiso vs Alberite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Alberite
Alberite
9/24/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso54%
×Draw22%
Alberite24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Balsamaiso
1.96
Alberite
1.22

Peña Balsamaiso creates 61% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 46 away

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.32
Alberite
0.85

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.58
Alberite
2.61

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par
Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

Alberite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw
76%
Peña Balsamaiso or Alberite
78%
Draw or Alberite
46%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
32%
Alberite wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
86%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
58%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
31%
Alberite 1+ goals
70%
Alberite 2+ goals
34%
Alberite 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
70%
Alberite (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.96

Alberite attack 0.85 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more
54%
level
22%
Alberite scores more
24%

Peña Balsamaiso at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Peña Balsamaiso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Peña Balsamaiso 7–0 Alberite

Peña Balsamaiso beat Alberite 7-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.