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Peña Azagresa vs Peña Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Peña Sport
Peña Sport
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Estadio Miguel Sola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Peña Azagresa40%
×Draw25%
Peña Sport35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Azagresa
1.44
Peña Sport
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Peña Azagresa
1.66
Peña Sport
1.38

allows per match

Peña Azagresa
1.31
Peña Sport
1.23

finishing

Peña Azagresa+0.00on par
Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Azagresa ↓

Peña Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peña Azagresa or draw
65%
Peña Azagresa or Peña Sport
75%
Draw or Peña Sport
60%

Winning margin

Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
19%
Peña Sport wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
76%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
42%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
18%
Peña Sport 1+ goals
74%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
39%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
53%
Peña Sport (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Azagresa at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Azagresa attack 1.66 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Peña Azagresa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peña Azagresa scores more
40%
level
25%
Peña Sport scores more
35%

Peña Azagresa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peña Azagresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peña Azagresa 2 – 1 Peña Sport

Peña Azagresa beat Peña Sport 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Sola in Azagra.