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Pelotas vs Novorizontino — Serie D 2018

Pelotas
Pelotas
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Novorizontino
Novorizontino
11/21/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 13Estádio Boca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pelotas38%
×Draw26%
Novorizontino35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelotas
1.33
Novorizontino
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Pelotas
1.71
Novorizontino
1.25

allows per match

Pelotas
1.29
Novorizontino
0.95

finishing

Pelotas+0.00on par
Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelotas ↓

Novorizontino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pelotas or draw
65%
Pelotas or Novorizontino
74%
Draw or Novorizontino
62%

Winning margin

Pelotas wins by 2+
17%
Novorizontino wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pelotas 1+ goals
74%
Pelotas 2+ goals
38%
Pelotas 3+ goals
15%
Novorizontino 1+ goals
72%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
36%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pelotas (draw refunded)
52%
Novorizontino (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelotas at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelotas attack 1.71 + Novorizontino defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Novorizontino attack 1.25 + Pelotas defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pelotas scores more
38%
level
26%
Novorizontino scores more
35%

Pelotas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelotas vs Novorizontino

Pelotas beat Novorizontino 4-3 in Serie D on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Boca do Lobo in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul.