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Pelotas vs Juventude II — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Pelotas
Pelotas
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Juventude II
Juventude II
10/26/2025Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 7Estadio Boca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pelotas89%
×Draw8%
Juventude II3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelotas
3.38
Juventude II
0.53

Pelotas creates 538% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pelotas
4.67
Juventude II
0.73

allows per match

Pelotas
0.33
Juventude II
2.09

finishing

Pelotas+0.00on par
Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelotas ↓

Juventude II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Pelotas or draw
97%
Pelotas or Juventude II
92%
Draw or Juventude II
11%

Winning margin

Pelotas wins by 2+
73%
Juventude II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Pelotas 1+ goals
96%
Pelotas 2+ goals
84%
Pelotas 3+ goals
64%
Juventude II 1+ goals
41%
Juventude II 2+ goals
10%
Juventude II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Pelotas (draw refunded)
97%
Juventude II (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelotas at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelotas attack 4.67 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 3.38

Juventude II attack 0.73 + Pelotas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Pelotas scores more
89%
level
8%
Juventude II scores more
3%

Pelotas at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelotas vs Juventude II

Pelotas beat Juventude II 7-0 in Copa Gaúcha on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Boca do Lobo in Pelotas.