Pelotas 1–2 Caxias: Result & Stats | Serie D

Pelotas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Caxias

10/1/2020

Serie D · Round 3Estádio Boca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pelotas44%

×Draw26%

Caxias29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelotasExpected goals in this matchCaxias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Pelotas

1.42

Caxias

1.10

Pelotas creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 50 away

1.71

creates per match

0.92

1.29

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Pelotas

1.71

Caxias

0.92

allows per match

Pelotas

1.29

Caxias

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelotas+0.00on par

Caxias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelotas ↓

Caxias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pelotas or draw

71%

Pelotas or Caxias

74%

Draw or Caxias

56%

Winning margin

Pelotas wins by 2+

21%

Caxias wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pelotas 1+ goals

76%

Pelotas 2+ goals

41%

Pelotas 3+ goals

17%

Caxias 1+ goals

67%

Caxias 2+ goals

30%

Caxias 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pelotas (draw refunded)

60%

Caxias (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelotas at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Caxias away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelotas attack 1.71 + Caxias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

Caxias attack 0.92 + Pelotas defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pelotas scores more

44%

level

26%

Caxias scores more

29%

Pelotas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff