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Pelotas vs Aimoré — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Pelotas
Pelotas
Pens
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aimoré
Aimoréadvanced
11/23/2025Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · Semi-finalsEstadio Boca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pelotas86%
×Draw10%
Aimoré4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelotas
3.12
Aimoré
0.56

Pelotas creates 457% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pelotas
4.67
Aimoré
0.78

allows per match

Pelotas
0.33
Aimoré
1.56

finishing

Pelotas+0.00on par
Aimoré+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelotas ↓

Aimoré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pelotas or draw
96%
Pelotas or Aimoré
90%
Draw or Aimoré
14%

Winning margin

Pelotas wins by 2+
69%
Aimoré wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Pelotas 1+ goals
95%
Pelotas 2+ goals
81%
Pelotas 3+ goals
59%
Aimoré 1+ goals
43%
Aimoré 2+ goals
11%
Aimoré 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Pelotas (draw refunded)
96%
Aimoré (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelotas at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Aimoré away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelotas attack 4.67 + Aimoré defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 3.12

Aimoré attack 0.78 + Pelotas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Pelotas scores more
86%
level
10%
Aimoré scores more
4%

Pelotas at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Pelotas 0–1 Aimoré

Aimoré beat Pelotas 1-0 in Copa Gaúcha on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Boca do Lobo in Pelotas.