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Pelister vs Vardar Forino — Second League 2019

Pelister
Pelister
CANC
00:00
Vardar Forino
Vardar Forino
3/25/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pelister73%
×Draw19%
Vardar Forino9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
2.05
Vardar Forino
0.55

Pelister creates 273% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pelister
2.29
Vardar Forino
0.63

allows per match

Pelister
0.47
Vardar Forino
1.81

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
Vardar Forino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Vardar Forino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
91%
Pelister or Vardar Forino
81%
Draw or Vardar Forino
27%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
47%
Vardar Forino wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
87%
Pelister 2+ goals
61%
Pelister 3+ goals
33%
Vardar Forino 1+ goals
42%
Vardar Forino 2+ goals
11%
Vardar Forino 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
89%
Vardar Forino (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.47 · 38 matches

Vardar Forino away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.29 + Vardar Forino defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.05

Vardar Forino attack 0.63 + Pelister defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Pelister scores more
73%
level
19%
Vardar Forino scores more
9%

Pelister at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pelister vs Vardar Forino — Match Preview

Pelister face Vardar Forino on March 25, 2020 in this Second League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.