Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pelister vs Sasa — Second League 2019

Pelister
Pelister
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sasa
Sasa
5/13/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Pelister64%
×Draw21%
Sasa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
2.02
Sasa
0.88

Pelister creates 130% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 82 away

creates per match

Pelister
2.34
Sasa
1.26

allows per match

Pelister
0.50
Sasa
1.70

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
Sasa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Sasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
84%
Pelister or Sasa
79%
Draw or Sasa
36%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
39%
Sasa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
87%
Pelister 2+ goals
60%
Pelister 3+ goals
33%
Sasa 1+ goals
59%
Sasa 2+ goals
22%
Sasa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
80%
Sasa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.50 · 38 matches

Sasa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.34 + Sasa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.02

Sasa attack 1.26 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pelister scores more
64%
level
21%
Sasa scores more
16%

Pelister at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelister vs Sasa

Pelister and Sasa drew 0-0 in Second League on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe in Bitola.