Pelister 3–1 Renova: Result & Stats | First League

Pelister

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Renova

D. Razmoski 55'

B. Manevski 44' (pen)

О. Goudiaby 9'

A. Aliti 23'

2/28/2021

First League · Round 20Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Pelister41%

×Draw28%

Renova31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.05

Pelister

1.24

Renova

1.05

Pelister creates 18% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 46 away

0.98

creates per match

1.15

0.95

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Pelister

0.98

Renova

1.15

allows per match

Pelister

0.95

Renova

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

69%

Pelister or Renova

72%

Draw or Renova

59%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

18%

Renova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

71%

Pelister 2+ goals

35%

Pelister 3+ goals

13%

Renova 1+ goals

65%

Renova 2+ goals

28%

Renova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

57%

Renova (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Renova away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 0.98 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.24

Renova attack 1.15 + Pelister defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pelister scores more

41%

level

28%

Renova scores more

31%

Pelister at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

23'

26'

35'

44'

B. ManevskiPenalty

55'

D. Razmoski

59'

S. Shefiti← F. Stojchevski

59'

J. Mena← A. Tafe

67'

G. Tanushev← B. Manevski

68'

H. Dragarski

70'

B. Spirkoski

70'

S. Muharem← A. Jasharovski

77'

P. Amponsah← I. Pejaković

79'

A. Gavazaj← R. Selmani

86'

P. Amponsah

86'

K. Nikolovski← D. Razmoski

Pelister

Renova

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manevski

⚽

Goudiaby

⚽

▼

Razmoski

Manager: D. Kapinkovski

67'▲G. Tanushev←▼B. Manevski

77'▲P. Amponsah←▼I. Pejaković

86'▲K. Nikolovski←▼D. Razmoski

Pelister substitutes

TanushevAmponsahNikolovski

Manager: Q. Osmani

59'▲S. Shefiti←▼F. Stojchevski

59'▲J. Mena←▼A. Tafe

70'▲S. Muharem←▼A. Jasharovski

79'▲A. Gavazaj←▼R. Selmani

Renova substitutes

ShefitiMenaMuharemGavazaj