Pelister 1–0 Pobeda: Result & Stats | Second League

Pelister

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pobeda

5/11/2024

Second League · Round 29Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Pelister75%

×Draw17%

Pobeda8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchPobeda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.59

Pelister

2.27

Pobeda

0.59

Pelister creates 285% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 67 away

2.34

creates per match

0.69

0.50

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Pelister

2.34

Pobeda

0.69

allows per match

Pelister

0.50

Pobeda

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Pobeda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

92%

Pelister or Pobeda

83%

Draw or Pobeda

25%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

51%

Pobeda wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

90%

Pelister 2+ goals

66%

Pelister 3+ goals

39%

Pobeda 1+ goals

45%

Pobeda 2+ goals

12%

Pobeda 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

90%

Pobeda (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.50 · 38 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.21 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.34 + Pobeda defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.27

Pobeda attack 0.69 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Pelister scores more

75%

level

17%

Pobeda scores more

8%

Pelister at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff