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Pelister vs Pakhtakor — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pelister
Pelister
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
1/30/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pelister45%
×Draw23%
Pakhtakor32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
1.73
Pakhtakor
1.43

Pelister creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pelister
2.17
Pakhtakor
0.86

allows per match

Pelister
2.00
Pakhtakor
1.29

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
68%
Pelister or Pakhtakor
77%
Draw or Pakhtakor
55%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
24%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
82%
Pelister 2+ goals
52%
Pelister 3+ goals
25%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
76%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
42%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
58%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.17 + Pakhtakor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Pakhtakor attack 0.86 + Pelister defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pelister scores more
45%
level
23%
Pakhtakor scores more
32%

Pelister at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Pelister
Pakhtakor
Milan Stojanovski
Manager: Milan Stojanovski
Pedro Moreira
Manager: Pedro Moreira

Friendlies Clubs: Pelister 0–1 Pakhtakor

Pakhtakor beat Pelister 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 30, 2026.