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Pelister vs Karaorman — Second League 2019

Pelister
Pelister
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Karaorman
Karaorman
9/23/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 6Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pelister75%
×Draw16%
Karaorman8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
2.29
Karaorman
0.60

Pelister creates 282% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pelister
2.34
Karaorman
0.70

allows per match

Pelister
0.50
Karaorman
2.23

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
Karaorman+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Karaorman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
92%
Pelister or Karaorman
84%
Draw or Karaorman
25%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
52%
Karaorman wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
90%
Pelister 2+ goals
66%
Pelister 3+ goals
40%
Karaorman 1+ goals
45%
Karaorman 2+ goals
12%
Karaorman 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
90%
Karaorman (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.50 · 38 matches

Karaorman away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.34 + Karaorman defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.29

Karaorman attack 0.70 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Pelister scores more
75%
level
16%
Karaorman scores more
8%

Pelister at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Pelister 4–1 Karaorman

Pelister beat Karaorman 4-1 in Second League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe in Bitola.