Pelister 2–0 Kadino: Result & Stats | Second League

Pelister

FT

2 – 0

Kadino

10/12/2019

Second League · West - 8Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pelister71%

×Draw19%

Kadino10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchKadino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.60

Pelister

2.01

Kadino

0.60

Pelister creates 235% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 21 away

2.26

creates per match

0.71

0.50

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Pelister

2.26

Kadino

0.71

allows per match

Pelister

0.50

Kadino

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Kadino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Kadino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

90%

Pelister or Kadino

81%

Draw or Kadino

29%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

45%

Kadino wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

87%

Pelister 2+ goals

59%

Pelister 3+ goals

32%

Kadino 1+ goals

45%

Kadino 2+ goals

12%

Kadino 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

88%

Kadino (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.50 · 42 matches

Kadino away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.26 + Kadino defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.01

Kadino attack 0.71 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Pelister scores more

71%

level

19%

Kadino scores more

10%

Pelister at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff