Pelister 1–0 Belasica: Result & Stats

Pelister

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Belasica

10/29/2022

Second League · Round 10Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Pelister56%

×Draw23%

Belasica21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchBelasica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.98

Pelister

1.76

Belasica

0.98

Pelister creates 80% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 68 away

2.34

creates per match

1.46

0.50

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Pelister

2.34

Belasica

1.46

allows per match

Pelister

0.50

Belasica

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Belasica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Belasica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

79%

Pelister or Belasica

77%

Draw or Belasica

44%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

31%

Belasica wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

83%

Pelister 2+ goals

52%

Pelister 3+ goals

26%

Belasica 1+ goals

62%

Belasica 2+ goals

26%

Belasica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

73%

Belasica (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.50 · 38 matches

Belasica away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.34 + Belasica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Belasica attack 1.46 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pelister scores more

56%

level

23%

Belasica scores more

21%

Pelister at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff